„If you are going to impose sanctions, you want to organize them so that they will be as effective as possible – and in the case of the current war, I am not sure that they have been.“ – Eric Maskin
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, sanctions aimed at deterrence have been increasingly used to dissuade Putin from further military expansion – until the military attack on Ukraine on February 24 reshuffled the cards worldwide. Six months after the war began, Saskia Meuchelböck of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Nobel laureates Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin and Sir Christopher A. Pissarides evaluate the effectiveness and success of ongoing economic sanctions at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings. The use of the economic weapon aims to end the war; while Oliver Hart focuses on the punitive effect, Eric Maskin hopes for sanctions as an incentive to move Russia to the negotiating table. Even if the sanctions used weaken the Russian economy, unintended political consequences within Russia may counteract their success, as Ms. Meuchelböck confirms using recent studies. The time horizon and trade-offs put pressure on the sanctioning countries: “How long can we affort this situation?” is a question posed by moderator Klaus Schweinsberg to the invited guests.